Will the IRI Fall This Year? A Closer Look at Protests and Future Expectations

Recently, discussions have intensified regarding the likelihood of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRI) facing a collapse this year. While many voices have contributed to the narrative, it is crucial to evaluate the current situation and potential future outcomes more critically.

The Ongoing Protests

There is a sense of unity among Iranians across the world, who have been united against the IRI for the past 43 years due to relentless persecution. The recent presidential elections, scheduled for four months from now, might mark a turning point in the Iranian political landscape. However, it is significant to note that Hassan Rouhani's government has been deemed weak and largely unsuccessful in fulfilling the aspirations of the Iranian people. As a result, 90% of Iranians have become dissatisfied with the current government.

The Legacy of Hassan Rouhani

Eight years ago, Rouhani managed to win the majority vote by delivering promising promises to the Iranian people. However, after eight years of governance, the same people now perceive that their government has not delivered on any of its pledges. Consequently, they often express regret for their choice and continue to protest against Rouhani's administration. It is possible that a stronger and more capable government will be elected in the upcoming elections, bringing about substantial changes in the political climate.

Support for Rouhani and Future Outlook

The abovementioned statement provides an example of how Rouhani once enjoyed strong support. However, it is evident that the aftermath of his failed promises has caused widespread dissatisfaction among the populace. As a result, these individuals are expected to vote for someone who does not align with Rouhani's ideology in the next election.

The Complex Reality of Iran

Some media outlets and individuals may suggest that a regime change is imminent because of the deep-seated hatred against the government. However, it is essential to consider the nuanced reality of Iran. An on-air resignation of a TV news anchor who publicly apologized for her 13-year lie to support the regime indicates a shift in public sentiment, which might be seen as a genuine and significant step towards change. Similarly, protests in countries such as France suggest that individuals are demanding accountability and better governance. These events do not necessarily imply that the majority are opposed to their governments, but rather that there is a call for reform.

Challenges and Perceptions

One must also address the simplistic views that urban people across Iran desire regime change while rural people remain steadfast in their support. In reality, there are significant urban populations who support the government, and vice versa. This highlights the complexity of the Iranian socio-political landscape and the potential for misinterpretation when making broad generalizations.

Conclusion

While the prospects of significant change are certainly on the horizon, it is imperative to approach this issue with a balanced perspective. Understanding the diverse opinions and challenges within Iranian society can provide a clearer picture of the road ahead. As the elections draw near, the outcome will likely shape the future trajectory of the IRI. Only time will tell whether this period truly marks the beginning of a new era in Iran.