Why is America Worried About the Iranian Submarine Threat?

As the global landscape of naval warfare continues to evolve, the geopolitical climate surrounding Iran and the Persian Gulf remains a focal point of strategic analysis. The question of whether the Iranian submarine can reach the United States has been a recurring concern, especially as Iran's naval force expands and modernizes.

Iran's Naval Forces: A Strategic Overview

The Persian Gulf, with its strategic significance in international trade and security, is a primary theater for Iranian naval operations. Iran's naval forces are divided into two branches: the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy (IRGNC). Together, these forces operate a fleet of approximately 34 vessels, including both diesel-electric attack submarines and mini-submarines.

The capabilities of Iran's Navy include:

34 total submarines No nuclear-powered attack submarines 7 diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs) 27 mini-submarines (SSMs)

While Iran's submarines are primarily designed for operations in local waters, such as the Persian Gulf, they pose a significant threat to American naval assets. However, their operational range and effectiveness are limited by various factors, making them less of a threat to the American coast.

Capabilities and Limitations of Iranian Submarines

Iranian submarines are not equipped to conduct extended operations in deep waters. They are vulnerable to advanced anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities, including sophisticated anti-submarine aircraft, surface ships, and other submarines. These vessels are not built for long underwater missions and their shallow operating waters in the Persian Gulf make them more detectable. Additionally, their crews are not as skilled as those of more developed navies, further reducing their effectiveness.

The military submarines operated by Iran are capable of brief operations in the American seas, but their noise and visibility make them easy targets. Even in a peacetime scenario, they may manage a surprise attack before being neutralized, but in wartime, they are unlikely to even leave port due to the intense pressure from global navies, especially the US and Royal Navies. The old Soviet submarines they possess are even more ineffective due to their age and outdated technology.

World Oil Markets and Economic Consequences

The strategic location of the Strait of Hormuz underscores the criticality of Iran's naval capabilities. Approximately one-fifth of the world's oil passes through this narrow waterway. A blockade or threat from Iranian submarines can lead to significant economic repercussions, potentially causing a spike in oil prices. Given Iran's heavy dependence on oil revenues, the economic incentives to act provocatively are minimal, but the symbolic threat remains.

A midget submarine, if deployed near the bottom and moving slowly, could be exceedingly difficult to detect. Such a submarine would pose a threat to any vessel passing through the region, making it a plausible strategy for disruption.

Conclusion

While Iran's submarines are a cause for concern in local waters, they are not a credible threat to the United States. American forces are well-prepared to counter any potential submarine threats. However, the psychological and economic consequences of an Iranian naval provocation in the Persian Gulf must not be underestimated, especially given the global dependence on oil from the region.