The Future of UKIP Post-Brexit: From Reform UK to BNP-lite

The UK Independence Party (UKIP) is in a state of flux post-Brexit, with many of its members and supporters moving to other parties or channels. This article explores the reasons behind the party's decline and the potential future for UKIP, including its transformation into a BNP-like entity.

UKIP's Membership Disarray and the Rise of Reform UK

A significant chunk of UKIP's members, particularly those who were aligned with powerful figures such as Nigel Farage, have either joined his new Reform UK or reverted to their previous loyalties, primarily the Conservative or Labour parties. These movements reflect the broader political shifts in the UK following the Brexit referendum.

The remaining members of UKIP are now operating in a platform that is markedly smaller and less influential. After losing all their MPs and MEPs, as well as London and Welsh Assembly Members, it appears that UKIP may be heading down a path of marginalization on the right wing.

UKIP's Evolution to a BNP-lite Presence

It is worrying that some of UKIP's members have shifted the party's focus to a more extreme right-wing position. This shift is clear in the adoption of a BNP-like ideology, which has alienated moderate voters and contributed to the party's decline. The departure of reasonable individuals left UKIP with a core group of individuals who are often perceived as loony and racist.

The Leadership Crisis and Decline

Leadership has been a significant issue within UKIP. Since leaving Nigel Farage, the party has faced a series of increasingly poor leaders, from figures such as the fantasist Paul Nuttall to the Islamophobe Gerard Batten, who recently resigned. These leaders have not helped UKIP's cause but rather contributed to its decline.

Farage's decision to launch the Brexit Party, a one-man band focused on the singular issue of Brexit, provided an alternative that was more palatable to many UKIP voters. The Brexit Party's success in attracting voters who were repulsed by UKIP's aggressive rhetoric has left UKIP with only its most extreme members.

The Cycle of Fringe Political Movements

Fringe political movements such as UKIP often exist in a cycle where they rise due to singular issues and then fall due to their extremist views. While Conservative Party leaders in the past managed to control these movements, the current situation suggests that UKIP is now subject to the same kind of entryism by extremists.

Ironically, Farage's departure from UKIP freed the party from the control he had previously exercised, allowing extremist views to flourish. This has left UKIP in a weakened state, making it more susceptible to further shifts in its political identity.

Conclusion

Post-Brexit, UKIP faces an uncertain future. Its decline is not only due to internal strife but also to the broader political landscape of the UK. The party's shift towards a BNP-lite structure may attract short-term support but is unlikely to hold steady in the long run. Only time will tell whether UKIP can reinvent itself or whether it will fade into obscurity as a fringe political entity.